How the Commanders failed to clinch a playoff berth in Week 16

Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The Washington Commanders are on the verge of the postseason. We break down how they failed to clinch a spot in the 2025 NFL Playoffs in Week 16.

Game result: Washington and Philadelphia played a frantic game that saw huge swings in the second half, including the Commanders taking a 36-33 lead in the final 10 seconds of play. But even with their win against the Eagles on Sunday, they still didn’t accomplish everything they needed to clinch a spot in the postseason. That’s because their clinching scenarios depending on a Falcons loss or tie, but Atlanta handled business against the Giants. With the Rams also winning, the Commanders didn’t get any of the help they needed though, and will hope to clinch next week.

The last time the Washington Commanders appeared in the playoffs?

That came at the end of the 2020 NFL season, when Washington captured the NFC East with a 7-9 record.

This year things are a little different in Washington. The Commanders enter Week 16 with a 9-5 record, guaranteed to finish above .500 for the first time since 2016 (the franchise finished with an 8-8-1 record back in 2022, coming in at exactly .500 on the year).

But the Commanders have their eyes on a bigger prize: The NFL Playoffs.

They can clinch a spot in the postseason this weekend. Here is how.

Commanders playoff berth clinching scenarios

As noted, the Commanders can punch their postseason ticket this weekend.

But they will need a substantial amount of help.

Washington has three different pathways to the playoffs this weekend.

In the first scenario, the Commanders defeat the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. That, coupled with an Atlanta Falcons loss or tie against the New York Giants and a Los Angeles Rams loss or tie against the New York Jets, would clinch a playoff spot for Washington.

Commanders win AND Falcons loss/tie AND Rams loss/tie

The second pathway? It too starts with a Commanders win against the Eagles. Then if the Falcons lose or tie against the Giants, and the Seattle Seahawks lose or tie against the Minnesota Vikings, the Commanders are in the dance.

Commanders win AND Falcons loss/tie AND Seahawks loss/tie

And now, the third scenario, which begins with a Washington tie with Philadelphia. That, coupled with a Falcons loss, a Rams loss or tie, a Seahawks loss or tie, and an Arizona Cardinals loss or tie against the Carolina Panthers, and the Commanders are in.

There is one catch to this third scenario, however. If the Rams and Seahawks both tie, then the Commanders will not clinch a playoff spot.

Commanders tie AND Falcons loss AND Cardinals loss/tie AND Rams loss/tie AND Seahawks loss/tie (but not both the Rams and Seahawks ties)

NFC standings entering Week 16

1. x-Detroit Lions (12-2, win over MIN, 8-1 NFC)
2. x-Philadelphia Eagles (12-2, 7-2 NFC)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6, 6-3 NFC)
4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6, win over SEA, 5-5 NFC)

5. x-Minnesota Vikings (12-2, loss to DET)
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
7. Washington Commanders (9-5)

8. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
9. Atlanta Falcons (7-7, 7-3 NFC)
10. Arizona Cardinals (7-7, 3-6 NFC)
11. San Francisco 49ers (6-8, win over DAL)
12. Dallas Cowboys (6-8, loss to SF)*
13. New Orleans Saints (5-9)
14. Chicago Bears (4-10) — eliminated
15. Carolina Panthers (3-11) — eliminated
16. New York Giants (2-12) — eliminated

Teams with an asterisk (*) have been eliminated from divisional contention
Teams with an (x) have clinched a playoff spot
Teams with a (y) have clinched their division